Learn how comparing quarterly freight averages can empower you to anticipate market fluctuations and optimize your logistics budget.
Why Track Seasonal Freight Trends?
In global logistics, shipping costs are never static. They ebb and flow with seasons, holidays, global demand, and economic factors. For businesses, being blindsided by a sudden 40% increase in Q4 ocean freight rates can disrupt budgets and supply chains. The CNFANS Spreadsheet
The Core Method: Quarterly Average Comparison
This approach moves beyond looking at single data points. By calculating and comparing quarterly averages, you smooth out weekly volatility and reveal the true underlying trend.
Implementation Steps:
- Data Aggregation:
- Quarterly Segmentation:
- Average Calculation:
Quarterly Average = Sum of all rates in the quarter / Number of shipments in the quarter- Trend Analysis:
- Quarterly Segmentation:
Applying the CNFANS Spreadsheet Framework
The CNFANS template provides a structured view for this analysis. Typically, you would create a sheet with:
| Year | Q1 Average | Q2 Average | Q3 Average | Q4 Average | YOY Q4 Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $4,200 | $3,900 | $5,300 | $6,800 | -- |
| 2023 | $4,000 | $3,700 | $5,100 | $7,200 | +5.9% |
| 2024 (Forecast) | $4,100 | $3,800 (Est.) | $5,400 (Est.) | $7,500 (Est.) | +4.2% (Est.) |
Key Insight:
From Data to Action: Strategic Planning
- Budget Forecasting:
- Contract Negotiation:
- Inventory Management:
- Scenario Planning:
- Contract Negotiation: